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| Taliban. |
BENTENGSUMBAR.COM - Now over 28 provinces in Afghanistan are witnessing heavy clashes between the government and the Taliban militant group. Taliban has recently succeeded in capturing the northern province of Kunduz. The peace plan of the government with Hekmatyar-led Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin party despite the initial optimism that it carried to the public has failed to help boost the deteriorating security conditions in the country.
Some analysts recommend that instead of making peace with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's party the national unity government and the countries engaged in Afghanistan crisis should ponder starting more serious negotiations with Taliban because the key drive behind the widespread insecurity in Afghanistan is Taliban and not the other rebel groups.
With regard to these issues and with shedding light on an array of internal and external factors affecting the Afghan conditions, it appears that 11 key factors play the key role in influencing Afghanistan’s current circumstances. They are as follows:
1. If Washington and Islamabad, that are influential powers in Afghanistan, want to put an end to the war and bring peace to this country, they have to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table– and not Hekmatyar’s party– as the main party to the Afghan peace dialogue. So, dishonesty of the US and Pakistan is clearly noticeable in their efforts to make peace and stability in Afghanistan.
2. The volatile relations of Taliban with Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin indicate that Hekmatyar in some days, particularly before the past elections, moved close to Taliban that pushed away Hekmatyar’s party from Kabul government. Certainly, the promise of cooperation between Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin and the government against the militant groups according to an agreement signed between the two in September is an indirect negative message to Taliban and it will possibly draw response from this insurgent group.
3. The role of Islamabad, specifically the Pakistani intelligence service known as Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in the peace deal between Kabul and Hekmatyar is unavoidable. Because Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin holds close and old-time ties with ISI, and the agency offers it support. Any cessation of cooperation between the party and Islamabad will create new troubles for Hekmatyar, as well as the Afghan national unity government.
4. So far the whole of Hekmatyar’s measures– along with other radical groups– have been focusing on planning and carrying out terrorist attacks that kill hundreds of innocent people. These activities stirred the UN to blacklist his name as a terrorist. With this record of Hekmatyar in mind, it is very unlikely he and the Pakistani intelligence service are eyeing advances in the country’s peace process.
5. Despite the political gestures and pattering in the country, the main party of negotiations with the government is Taliban. So, it can be argued that the major problem of Kabul is not talks with Hekmatyar-led party. Actually, an exit from the crisis in Afghanistan requires having a comprehensive look and taking practical steps for peace. Talking peace with Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin will bear no results without backing from Afghanistan’s international partners. To end the imposed war on Afghanistan, the international sides need to give a helping hand to the peace process. The UN has pledged to help the peace talks go ahead.
6. Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin has urged some concessions and privileges from the government of Ashraf Ghani in return for joining the peace negotiations. Once the government makes irrational concessions to Hekmatyar’s party due to miscalculations and optimism, the outcome will be in favor of Pakistan. Because presence of pro-Hekmatyar parties in the body of the government of Afghanistan could make grounds for influence of the pro-Pakistani elements in the national unity government.
7. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar has now changed into a useless pawn and the Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin is fallen apart politically and militarily. The peace with Hekmatyar and his party will not be positively affecting the political and security conditions in the country. In fact, beside a lot of demands that look irrational, the peace deal with him will not last long.
8. Taliban and Haqqani Network, also an insurgent group, are considered as native opposition groups inside Afghanistan and even the whole of the Central Asia. Responding to the peace talks between Kabul and Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin, Taliban has stepped up assaults on key and strategic regions of Afghanistan. By capturing cities and towns, Taliban seeks to show that not only Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin holds no sway in the country’s northern regions but also it cannot help scale down the current conflicts in the country, and all privileges given to it were in fact in vain. The offensives also carry message to the other insurgent groups that are interested in negotiating with Kabul: forget about making peace with the national unity government.
9. It is an unavoidable fact that Taliban is among the people of Kunduz. Actually, there have been operatives that have been working for years so that Taliban gets the opportunity to seize control of the city. Just like earlier times, this time Taliban's fighters entered the city using specific addresses. Keeping Taliban in Kunduz as a political instrument by some sides is considered as a necessity due to negative rivalry and sectarianism. Such a view of Taliban will only fuel the ethnic clashes. So, the country needs to get rid of instrumental use of Taliban by some sides in Kunduz.
10. The fact is that the foreign backers of Kabul see no other way but propping up the Afghan government. A government that they themselves formed and developed, and now despite clearly seeing its inefficiency, corruption, and other shortcomings have to feed it as long as their interests dictate. The corruption is so deep-rooted in Afghanistan that even threats and preconditions of the international backers cannot yield any boost. The monster of corruption has grown huge and uncontrollable as the country keeps receiving foreign aids.
11. While the Afghan government is very sensitive about seeing the foreign aids flowing in, it shows no sensitivity to planning for any alternative models of administration in the future. Of course the generosity or obligation of the international community are not everlasting. Despite placing preconditions and withholding aids, Kabul showed no commitment to pledges and no honesty to fight corruption and stage fundamental reforms in the country.
Having all of the above-mentioned cases in mind, one can conclude that the US-led West seeks half-war half-peace conditions in Afghanistan so that it could preserve the instruments it has in hand to press Kabul government as well as other regional countries. As long as the single-player strategy in Afghanistan leads other players to adopt reactionary strategy, no clear outlook for settlement and peace can be in sight. The political and security conditions are still critical as domestic and foreign players continue confrontation. The national unity government is under influence of players whose behaviors cannot be controlled by the Kabul. Consequently, the outlook for Afghanistan is in no way plain. (islamtimes)
Some analysts recommend that instead of making peace with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's party the national unity government and the countries engaged in Afghanistan crisis should ponder starting more serious negotiations with Taliban because the key drive behind the widespread insecurity in Afghanistan is Taliban and not the other rebel groups.
With regard to these issues and with shedding light on an array of internal and external factors affecting the Afghan conditions, it appears that 11 key factors play the key role in influencing Afghanistan’s current circumstances. They are as follows:
1. If Washington and Islamabad, that are influential powers in Afghanistan, want to put an end to the war and bring peace to this country, they have to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table– and not Hekmatyar’s party– as the main party to the Afghan peace dialogue. So, dishonesty of the US and Pakistan is clearly noticeable in their efforts to make peace and stability in Afghanistan.
2. The volatile relations of Taliban with Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin indicate that Hekmatyar in some days, particularly before the past elections, moved close to Taliban that pushed away Hekmatyar’s party from Kabul government. Certainly, the promise of cooperation between Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin and the government against the militant groups according to an agreement signed between the two in September is an indirect negative message to Taliban and it will possibly draw response from this insurgent group.
3. The role of Islamabad, specifically the Pakistani intelligence service known as Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in the peace deal between Kabul and Hekmatyar is unavoidable. Because Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin holds close and old-time ties with ISI, and the agency offers it support. Any cessation of cooperation between the party and Islamabad will create new troubles for Hekmatyar, as well as the Afghan national unity government.
4. So far the whole of Hekmatyar’s measures– along with other radical groups– have been focusing on planning and carrying out terrorist attacks that kill hundreds of innocent people. These activities stirred the UN to blacklist his name as a terrorist. With this record of Hekmatyar in mind, it is very unlikely he and the Pakistani intelligence service are eyeing advances in the country’s peace process.
5. Despite the political gestures and pattering in the country, the main party of negotiations with the government is Taliban. So, it can be argued that the major problem of Kabul is not talks with Hekmatyar-led party. Actually, an exit from the crisis in Afghanistan requires having a comprehensive look and taking practical steps for peace. Talking peace with Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin will bear no results without backing from Afghanistan’s international partners. To end the imposed war on Afghanistan, the international sides need to give a helping hand to the peace process. The UN has pledged to help the peace talks go ahead.
6. Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin has urged some concessions and privileges from the government of Ashraf Ghani in return for joining the peace negotiations. Once the government makes irrational concessions to Hekmatyar’s party due to miscalculations and optimism, the outcome will be in favor of Pakistan. Because presence of pro-Hekmatyar parties in the body of the government of Afghanistan could make grounds for influence of the pro-Pakistani elements in the national unity government.
7. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar has now changed into a useless pawn and the Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin is fallen apart politically and militarily. The peace with Hekmatyar and his party will not be positively affecting the political and security conditions in the country. In fact, beside a lot of demands that look irrational, the peace deal with him will not last long.
8. Taliban and Haqqani Network, also an insurgent group, are considered as native opposition groups inside Afghanistan and even the whole of the Central Asia. Responding to the peace talks between Kabul and Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin, Taliban has stepped up assaults on key and strategic regions of Afghanistan. By capturing cities and towns, Taliban seeks to show that not only Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin holds no sway in the country’s northern regions but also it cannot help scale down the current conflicts in the country, and all privileges given to it were in fact in vain. The offensives also carry message to the other insurgent groups that are interested in negotiating with Kabul: forget about making peace with the national unity government.
9. It is an unavoidable fact that Taliban is among the people of Kunduz. Actually, there have been operatives that have been working for years so that Taliban gets the opportunity to seize control of the city. Just like earlier times, this time Taliban's fighters entered the city using specific addresses. Keeping Taliban in Kunduz as a political instrument by some sides is considered as a necessity due to negative rivalry and sectarianism. Such a view of Taliban will only fuel the ethnic clashes. So, the country needs to get rid of instrumental use of Taliban by some sides in Kunduz.
10. The fact is that the foreign backers of Kabul see no other way but propping up the Afghan government. A government that they themselves formed and developed, and now despite clearly seeing its inefficiency, corruption, and other shortcomings have to feed it as long as their interests dictate. The corruption is so deep-rooted in Afghanistan that even threats and preconditions of the international backers cannot yield any boost. The monster of corruption has grown huge and uncontrollable as the country keeps receiving foreign aids.
11. While the Afghan government is very sensitive about seeing the foreign aids flowing in, it shows no sensitivity to planning for any alternative models of administration in the future. Of course the generosity or obligation of the international community are not everlasting. Despite placing preconditions and withholding aids, Kabul showed no commitment to pledges and no honesty to fight corruption and stage fundamental reforms in the country.
Having all of the above-mentioned cases in mind, one can conclude that the US-led West seeks half-war half-peace conditions in Afghanistan so that it could preserve the instruments it has in hand to press Kabul government as well as other regional countries. As long as the single-player strategy in Afghanistan leads other players to adopt reactionary strategy, no clear outlook for settlement and peace can be in sight. The political and security conditions are still critical as domestic and foreign players continue confrontation. The national unity government is under influence of players whose behaviors cannot be controlled by the Kabul. Consequently, the outlook for Afghanistan is in no way plain. (islamtimes)
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